BHI rose less than expected in March, and the trend of building materials and home furnishing market was better in the later stage

The national building materials and home furnishing prosperity index BHI was 115.25 in March, up 12.28 points month on month and 12.25 points year-on-year. The sales volume of building materials and household stores above Designated Size in China in March was 107.383 billion yuan, up 27.82% month on month and 38.60% year-on-year; The cumulative sales in the first quarter was 290.756 billion yuan, up 46.80% year-on-year.

China home furnishing Circulation Association covid-19 research department interpreted the current BHI data: in March 2022, the weather was warmer, and the traditional family dress peak season came. But in March, the new crown pneumonia epidemic in China was rebounded, which broke the rhythm of the rapid release of building materials consumption demand in the busy season to a certain extent, and BHI rose less than expected. The specific analysis is as follows:

First of all, from the situation of the national real estate market: in March, the policy of "stabilizing the real estate market" continued to be released due to the implementation of policies in cities all over the country. However, affected by the epidemic and the downturn of the stock market, the traditional "little sunny spring" peak season of the national real estate market did not appear. In terms of new housing market, the overall sales volume of key cities in March increased significantly compared with that in February, but the gap is still large compared with the same period last year; The multi-point outbreak of the epidemic has caused the overall house viewing heat to decline, the consumption expectation of the real estate market has been restrained, the market sales are under pressure, and the performance of most new housing markets is lower than expected. According to the data of China Index Research Institute, in March 2022, the average price of new houses in 100 cities across the country was 16189 yuan / m2, up 0.03% month on month; It rose 1.72% year-on-year, 0.17 percentage points lower than that of the previous month.

In terms of the second-hand housing market, with the further easing of the policy environment of the real estate market in many places, the trading volume of second-hand housing in some cities has rebounded; However, the market performance in Changchun, Shanghai and other areas with severe epidemic situation was dismal, and the rhythm of market recovery was interrupted. The data show that in March, the average price of second-hand houses in 100 cities across the country was 16027 yuan / m2, up 0.11% month on month; It rose 2.38% year-on-year, 0.34 percentage points lower than that of the previous month.

The national building materials and home furnishing market closely related to the national real estate market should also be the traditional peak season in March, but the epidemic broke out at many points in March. The epidemic prevention and control directly affected consumers' travel and home decoration. The consumption demand for building materials and home furnishings that should be released quickly in the peak season was restrained to a certain extent, affecting the performance of BHI: BHI rose 12.28 points month on month in March, but the increase narrowed by 10.75 points compared with the same period last year. In the first quarter, the cumulative sales of building materials and home stores above Designated Size in China was 290.756 billion yuan, up 46.80% year-on-year. The BHI index in the first quarter was significantly better than that in the same period last year, and the overall building materials and home market remained in a good trend in the later period.

Secondly, analyze the sub indexes of BHI: when BHI rose month on month, the "employment rate index" was 220.51, down 25.58 points month on month, down 29.26 points year on year, ranking the first in the year-on-year decline. This is the spread of the epidemic in many places, resulting in insufficient personnel on duty, especially for the traditional building materials home stores that have not yet integrated online and offline development. A similar sub index is the "popularity index", which is 178.22 this month, down 11.68 points month on month, up 4.58 points year-on-year. In March, the weather warmed up and in areas without epidemic diseases, building materials and home stores will create an atmosphere through various publicity and marketing methods in this traditional decoration peak season to attract passenger flow; The willingness of consumers in the epidemic sealed area to enter the store was pressed the "pause button".

This month's leading index "manager confidence index" was 163.98, up 39.33 points month on month, down 15.59 points year-on-year, and its absolute value was 59.44 (higher than 50, optimistic about the future market, lower than 50, weak future market), which is still in the high boom range. It can be seen that although the epidemic affected certain market expectations, it did not reverse market sentiment, and the industry development expectation is still good in the short term. It is expected that the impact of the epidemic in April will still exist. After the epidemic is effectively controlled, a wave of decoration tide will still come with the gradual force of the national policy to promote steady economic growth.

According to the purchasing manager index (PMI) of China's manufacturing industry in March released by the National Bureau of statistics and the China Federation of logistics and procurement, it was 49.5%, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, lower than the critical point, and the overall prosperity level of the manufacturing industry fell somewhat. However, the phased impact of the epidemic is limited, the total domestic production and consumption is large and resilient, and the recent release of the document "opinions of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on accelerating the construction of a national unified market" has boosted the institutional and market expectations of enterprises. It is suggested that the national building materials and home furnishing enterprises grasp the new development opportunities under the current new development pattern, and stimulate the consumption vitality of the building materials and home furnishing market and release the consumption potential of residents by providing consumers with green, healthy, environmental friendly, safe and intelligent building materials and home furnishing products.